Football fans are, generally, glass half-empty merchants, as opposed to enjoying the half-measure of beverage still residing in their receptacle.
And so there’s a contingent of Crewe Alexandra supporters – those who dig a bit deeper in their analysis of the beautiful game – that will be advising caution given that the Railwaymen have, at times, been outplayed this term and still come away with a positive result.
Those that bet football regularly may have been aware that Crewe were given more chance of being relegated than promoted this term, with odds of 50/1 on the Alex winning League Two indicative of how far away the bookmakers perceived them to be from enjoying a successful campaign.
But here they are, seven games into the campaign, within touching distance of the play-off places, a fair turnaround from the doldrums that overtook the club last season.
Roughly 40 miles away, Liverpool are experiencing a tough start to the 2022/23 campaign, and the most popular Premier League bet odds have been Manchester City to retain their title at the expense of the Merseysiders – City are priced at just 1/3 to prevail in the top-flight.
With Stoke City and Port Vale also experiencing difficulties of late, Crewe are leading the way for the local sides right now.
Who could have predicted that after their hapless 2021/22, in which they finished bottom of League One and some 12 points from safety?
A Word of Caution
Like we say – being a football fan is a pursuit often imbued with pessimism and apocalyptic thinking.
In the case of Crewe Alexandra, it might – whisper it – be deserved.
What a hit from Courtney Baker-Richardson! #EFL | @crewealexfc pic.twitter.com/61Qepb4Eyg
— Sky Bet League Two (@SkyBetLeagueTwo) August 21, 2022
Make no mistake, the Railwaymen are performing much better this term than last, and the showings of Rod McDonald, Courtney Baker-Richardson, and Daniel Agyei, to name just a few, have been excellent.
But there has been more than one occasion this term in which Alex has, perhaps, made the most of good fortune.
On the opening day of the season, they won a game at Rochdale in which they scored from two of their three shots on target – winning just one corner along the way.
And then there was the 1-0 home victory over Sutton United, in which the visitors were so dangerous they managed to fire in 20 shots at the Crewe goal and run up an Expected Goals count of 1.90 – on any other day, Sutton would have been expected to get rather more from the contest.
Bizarrely, the Alex have performed better in recent games and have not really gotten the results their dominance deserved.
They were 2-0 up against fifth-placed Northampton before eventually being pegged back to two-apiece, defended stoically to score a goalless draw with pre-season title favourites Bradford and went ahead against Stevenage, before a 20-minute period of madness after half-time saw them snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
There’s too much negativity in the world and certainly too much in football.
So this is not designed to pop the bubble of Crewe fans enjoying a solid start to life in the fourth tier.
However, as this brilliant but frustrating sport often teaches, it’s best to prepare for the worst and hope for the best… that’s certainly what the performance data suggests for Alex supporters, anyway.
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